Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:28:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc762…d6b0 crypto 585 markets active 10h ago coverage 512d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$33 (-4%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%287W / 287L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$25
14 days−$39
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$56
other 1% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -19.6% -27.2% 43% 43% -26.6%
≤30d 313 -9.6% -18.2% 46% 46% -15.6%
≤90d 563 -7.6% -16.4% 50% 49% -15.5%
all 574 -7.7% -16.5% 50% 48% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 48% -15.2%
10% -24.5% 46% -23.3%
15% -31.8% 43% -30.7%
20% -38.5% 39% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

512d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses287 / 287
Open positions11
Markets (closed)574 / 585
History coverage512d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 574 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+87%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.91 · official $10.91 (match) · 1236 history records