Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:47:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C7 0xc75d…5b7d crypto 463 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 101d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$185 (-3%) realized −$246 · open +$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate43%198W / 263L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day27.2pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$30
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$241
world 2% +$36
tech 0% +$4
other 0% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 +600.0% +533.3% 33% 33% -3.8%
≤90d 441 -9.9% -18.5% 44% 12% -14.0%
all 461 -9.5% -18.1% 43% 12% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.1% 12% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 7% -21.3%
15% -33.1% 4% -28.9%
20% -39.7% 2% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$246
Unrealized+$61
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses198 / 263
Open positions2
Markets (closed)461 / 463
History coverage102d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day27.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 461 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 27¢ 96¢ $22 $79 +$56 (+254%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 45¢ 52¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Game 2: Any Player Quadra Kill? May 25 $2 +$78 +4900%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Apr 04 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Apr 04 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 04 $14 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 04 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 04 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Apr 04 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 04 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 04 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 04 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Apr 04 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 04 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 04 $8 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 04 $10 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 04 $10 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 04 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 04 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 04 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 04 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Apr 04 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 04 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 04 $11 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 04 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 04 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 04 $5 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 04 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 04 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 04 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 04 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 04 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 04 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 04 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 04 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 04 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 04 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 04 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 04 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 04 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 04 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 04 $15 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Apr 04 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 04 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 04 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 04 $15 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 04 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 04 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 04 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 04 $5 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $104 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $99 8h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 27¢ $100 22h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 45¢ $31 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $20 7d
Game 2: Any Player Quadra Kill? BUY No 1¢ $0 54d
Game 2: Any Player Quadra Kill? BUY No 1¢ $0 56d
Game 2: Any Player Quadra Kill? BUY No 1¢ $0 56d
Game 2: Any Player Quadra Kill? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 57d
Game 2: Any Player Quadra Kill? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 57d
Game 2: Any Player Quadra Kill? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.07 · official $113.07 (match) · 3500 history records