Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C7 0xc755…7c5d sports 129 markets active 7h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$304 (+14%) realized +$304 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%68W / 61L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$298
7 days+$227
14 days+$283
30 days+$281
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$176
other 25% +$118
crypto 5% −$10
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +28.2% +16.0% 68% 68% +6.7%
≤30d 118 +5.4% -4.7% 53% 53% +2.4%
≤90d 129 +3.3% -6.6% 53% 51% +2.1%
all 129 +3.3% -6.6% 53% 51% +2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 51% +2.1%
10% -15.5% 48% -7.6%
15% -23.7% 42% -16.6%
20% -31.2% 32% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$9 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$304
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses68 / 61
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)129 / 129
History coverage31d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 129 Trades
no open positions (47 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$110 +54%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $26 +$40 +152%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $51 +$25 +50%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $51 +$28 +55%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $51 +$38 +75%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$17 +339%
Parma: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 15 $51 +$27 +54%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $40 +$22 +55%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 15 $40 −$23 -57%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $40 +$24 +59%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $20 +$17 +86%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$1 -5%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 14 $99 +$74 +74%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $20 +$13 +62%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $20 +$18 +89%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $20 +$10 +48%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $20 +$9 +46%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $25 +$9 +34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$23 +111%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $20 +$15 +73%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $20 −$3 -14%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $25 +$16 +64%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 12 $20 +$8 +39%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$9 +43%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 11 $20 +$13 +65%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $20 −$20 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $20 +$23 +114%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $50 +$16 +32%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $10 −$7 -66%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $75 +$15 +20%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Jordan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $70 +$15 +21%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $30 +$9 +30%
Will Qatar vs. El Salvador end in a draw? Jun 06 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $35 $0 -1%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $10 +$7 +73%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 06 $40 +$11 +27%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $20 +$14 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $312 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 9h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 100¢ $66 18h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Detroit Tigers 100¢ $76 30h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 64¢ $51 32h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Cincinnati Reds 99¢ $89 32h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 66¢ $51 32h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $22 33h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 56¢ $51 34h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 39h
Parma: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche SELL Luca Van Assche 100¢ $78 39h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 39¢ $26 39h
Parma: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 64¢ $51 40h
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Flavio Cobolli 22¢ $10 41h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Nikola Bartunkova 64¢ $40 43h
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet SELL Gauthier Onclin 26¢ $18 43h
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Gauthier Onclin 59¢ $40 43h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari SELL Qinwen Zheng 100¢ $64 43h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Qinwen Zheng 62¢ $40 44h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Hurricanes 100¢ $38 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $201 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $20 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 51¢ $19 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $20 2d
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 57¢ $99 2d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 68¢ $20 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 2d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 57¢ $20 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 61¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 221 history records