Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:51:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc754…ee69 world 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 286d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate29%15W / 36L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 29% −$5
other 26% −$1
politics 15% −$1
culture 10% $0
sports 9% $0
crypto 7% $0
economics 3% $0
weather 1% +$13
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.8% -12.0% 25% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 14 -2.0% -11.3% 21% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 14 -2.0% -11.3% 21% 0% -10.6%
all 51 +2.1% -7.6% 29% 2% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 2% -9.0%
10% -16.4% 2% -17.7%
15% -24.5% 2% -25.7%
20% -31.9% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

286d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses15 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage286d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $49 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $25 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $26 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $71 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $17 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $19 −$4 -21%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $28 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $4 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $45 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $24 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $3 $0 -9%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $28 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 23 $7 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $103K in September? Sep 23 $9 $0 +1%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 23 $3 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 23 $9 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 19 $2 $0 -5%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China? Sep 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Sep 18 $33 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 83°F or higher on Sep Sep 18 $8 +$13 +168%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 12 to September 19, Sep 17 $33 −$1 -3%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Sep 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 16 $33 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 15 $33 $0 +1%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 14 $31 $0 -1%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 13 $4 −$1 -25%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 12 $32 $0 +1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 11 $34 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Sep 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 11 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary? Sep 10 $8 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 09 $34 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $27 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $27 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $9 19h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $16 19h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $25 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $21 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $4 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $25 29h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $25 40h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $25 44h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $11 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $13 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $24 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $26 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $26 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $11 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $7 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 47¢ $17 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $17 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 38¢ $7 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 38¢ $5 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 38¢ $3 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $19 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $28 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $28 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $28 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $28 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 206 history records