Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:37:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
C7 0xc753…d2e1 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$211 (+34%) realized +$215 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$186now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$249
sports 7% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +13.0% +2.3% 43% 43% +36.8%
≤30d 7 +13.0% +2.3% 43% 43% +36.8%
≤90d 7 +13.0% +2.3% 43% 43% +36.8%
all 7 +13.0% +2.3% 43% 43% +36.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.3% 43% +36.8%
10% -7.5% 43% +23.7%
15% -16.5% 43% +11.8%
20% -24.7% 43% +0.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +51% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$124 vs −$40 · ×3.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.32 per $1 lost it wins $2.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$186
Realized+$215
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)7 / 12
History coverage4d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 51¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-28%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$77 +76%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $72 −$70 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $102 +$168 +165%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 +$127 +250%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 4¢ $21 9h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 11h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 11h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 11h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 16h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 16h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 17h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 20h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 21h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 2d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186.12 · official $186.20 (match) · 17 history records