Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:31:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C7 0xc74b…4e15 sports 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$34 (+0%) realized +$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%24W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$125est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$643
7 days−$1,521
14 days−$1,625
30 days−$323
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$979
crypto 18% −$830
other 6% −$472
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -47.9% -52.8% 16% 16% -69.0%
≤30d 105 -16.4% -24.4% 23% 23% -13.3%
≤90d 105 -16.4% -24.4% 23% 23% -13.3%
all 105 -16.4% -24.4% 23% 23% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 23% -13.3%
10% -31.6% 23% -21.6%
15% -38.2% 23% -29.2%
20% -44.3% 23% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$212 vs −$67 · ×3.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses24 / 81
Est. fees paid−$125
Open positions0
Markets (closed)105 / 105
History coverage20d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 105 Trades
no open positions (80 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 18 $71 −$67 -95%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$83 +393%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 18 $85 −$80 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $84 −$80 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $42 +$82 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $42 +$79 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $83 −$78 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $95 −$90 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $130 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$65 +249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$9 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$18 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$11 +201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $39 −$39 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $32 −$30 -95%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$14 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$10 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $15 +$63 +408%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $71 43m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $104 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $21 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $124 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $21 2h
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 45¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $83 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $73 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $92 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 169 history records