Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:06:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C7 0xc74a…ad24 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$210 (-48%) realized −$210 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$249
other 25% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-50.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -34.5% -40.8% 40% 40% -32.6%
≤30d 6 -45.5% -50.6% 33% 33% -67.4%
≤90d 6 -45.5% -50.6% 33% 33% -67.4%
all 6 -45.5% -50.6% 33% 33% -67.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.6% 33% -67.4%
10% -55.4% 33% -70.5%
15% -59.7% 33% -73.4%
20% -63.6% 33% -76.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -64% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -64% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$85 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$210
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage14d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $54 −$54 -100%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $51 +$26 +51%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $46 +$35 +76%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $226 −$225 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 75¢ $50 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $76 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $54 10h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $46 10h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $226 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records