Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:43:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc748…93e4 sports 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$130 (+8%) realized +$129 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%7W / 19L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$43
other 28% +$139
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -12.4% -20.7% 27% 27% -3.8%
≤30d 26 -12.4% -20.7% 27% 27% -3.8%
≤90d 26 -12.4% -20.7% 27% 27% -3.8%
all 26 -12.4% -20.7% 27% 27% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 27% -3.8%
10% -28.3% 27% -13.0%
15% -35.2% 27% -21.4%
20% -41.6% 19% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$29 · ×3.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$129
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses7 / 19
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage5d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Yes $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $21 −$5 -26%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $31 +$42 +138%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $102 +$111 +108%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $101 −$45 -45%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $31 −$9 -28%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$5 -50%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $51 −$3 -7%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $21 +$146 +708%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $183 +$90 +49%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $189 +$89 +47%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 −$45 -89%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$9 -83%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $253 +$151 +60%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 +$9 +95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? BUY Yes $10 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $51 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 13¢ $15 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 18¢ $21 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 21h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 35h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 18¢ $15 35h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 23¢ $21 36h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 45h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 47h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes $10 2d
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 39¢ $56 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 68¢ $101 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 14¢ $17 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes $5 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes $5 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $102 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 42¢ $48 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes $8 3d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $183 3d
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $102 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over $6 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? SELL Yes $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.90 · official $60.90 (match) · 61 history records