Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:23:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C7 0xc748…cdad crypto 1755 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 47d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,280 (+6%) realized +$1,279 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%921W / 842L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day42.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$617
7 days−$224
14 days−$1,626
30 days−$921
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$392
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -11.9% -20.3% 49% 49% -16.4%
≤30d 434 -0.5% -9.9% 54% 54% -17.8%
≤90d 1763 -5.8% -14.8% 52% 52% -11.2%
all 1763 -5.8% -14.8% 52% 52% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 52% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 52% -19.7%
15% -30.4% 51% -27.4%
20% -37.2% 48% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$1,279
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses921 / 842
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1763 / 1755
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day42.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1763 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Up 57¢ 58¢ $86 $88 +$2 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Up 52¢ 48¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 382 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 25, 6PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 24, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 3AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +67%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 16 $84 +$56 +66%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +65%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $35 −$34 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$13 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $412 −$401 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $152 −$147 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$14 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$52 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $39 +$27 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$10 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$8 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +68%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$14 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6PM ET Jun 10 $35 +$23 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $89 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $16 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $14 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $84 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $412 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $152 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $53 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $39 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $14 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $15 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $16 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $11 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $13 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.63 · official $102.63 (match) · 3500 history records