Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:36:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc747…0273 other 28 markets active 20h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$34 (-16%) realized −$35 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate48%10W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$33
14 days−$33
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$27
sports 19% +$1
world 12% −$9
politics 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +17.8% +6.6% 44% 44% -30.4%
≤30d 17 +17.3% +6.2% 47% 41% -29.1%
≤90d 21 +10.7% +0.2% 48% 38% -28.4%
all 21 +10.7% +0.2% 48% 38% -28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.2% 38% -28.4%
10% -9.4% 38% -35.2%
15% -18.2% 33% -41.5%
20% -26.2% 24% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)21 / 28
History coverage91d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 38¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+33%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$9 +442%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$6 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$8 +325%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $13 +$7 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $12 −$11 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 +$13 +169%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 28 $6 +$1 +10%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 06 $5 +$2 +31%
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? Apr 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Apr 10 $4 $0 -5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 02 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 19h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 20h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 20h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 20h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 20h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 41h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 41h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 2d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $15 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $12 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $9 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $13 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $13 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $12 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $16 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 5d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY Yes 91¢ $6 42d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $7 42d
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? BUY Yes 85¢ $4 68d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? SELL No 20¢ $4 68d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? BUY No 21¢ $4 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.03 · official $41.69 (match) · 40 history records