Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:30:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc745…4544 crypto 99 markets active 0h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$20 (-2%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate83%82W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$33
14 days−$33
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$47
world 2% +$10
politics 1% −$1
sports 1% −$10
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -4.3% -13.4% 86% 14% -24.7%
≤30d 35 -4.3% -13.4% 86% 14% -24.7%
≤90d 35 -4.3% -13.4% 86% 14% -24.7%
all 99 -2.1% -11.4% 83% 21% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 21% -13.6%
10% -19.9% 9% -21.9%
15% -27.6% 6% -29.4%
20% -34.7% 2% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses82 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)99 / 99
History coverage452d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 99 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$29 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Feb 12 $51 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Feb 11 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Feb 11 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Feb 11 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 29? Feb 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 29? Feb 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Feb 10 $43 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Feb 10 $43 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Feb 10 $43 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Feb 10 $42 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Feb 10 $41 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Feb 10 $39 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Feb 10 $36 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 9AM ET Feb 10 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Feb 10 $35 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 229 history records