Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:54:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C7 0xc743…fab0 sports 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$123 (+35%) realized +$125 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$123
other 43% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +32.9% +20.3% 75% 75% +29.0%
≤30d 8 +32.9% +20.3% 75% 75% +29.0%
≤90d 8 +32.9% +20.3% 75% 75% +29.0%
all 8 +32.9% +20.3% 75% 75% +29.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.3% 75% +29.0%
10% +8.8% 75% +16.6%
15% -1.7% 75% +5.4%
20% -11.4% 62% -5.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$25 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.34 per $1 lost it wins $3.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$125
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage5d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany leading at halftime? No 52¢ 50¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Uruguay leading at halftime? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $51 +$36 +71%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$21 +42%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 +$46 +91%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $25 +$23 +89%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $25 +$26 +101%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $25 +$17 +68%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 52¢ $25 1h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 52¢ $25 2h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 3h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 94¢ $87 13h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $72 15h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 17h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 17h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 97¢ $97 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $25 27h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $25 27h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 54¢ $25 28h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 54¢ $25 28h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $25 28h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $48 40h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 98¢ $51 42h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $25 44h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 48¢ $25 44h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 99¢ $43 45h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 58¢ $25 45h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $25 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.30 · official $73.30 (match) · 22 history records