Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:05:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc743…4cb7 weather 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$34 (-3%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%1W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day34.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -5.5% -14.5% 2% 0% -14.6%
≤30d 44 -5.5% -14.5% 2% 0% -14.6%
≤90d 44 -5.5% -14.5% 2% 0% -14.6%
all 44 -5.5% -14.5% 2% 0% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 0% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 0% -22.8%
15% -30.1% 0% -30.3%
20% -37.0% 0% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses1 / 43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage4d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day34.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Jun 21 $58 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? Jun 21 $18 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 22? Jun 21 $12 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 21 $8 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 21 $3 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 21? Jun 21 $54 −$4 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? Jun 21 $44 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 21 $8 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 21? Jun 21 $24 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? Jun 21 $25 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $22 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 21? Jun 20 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? Jun 20 $26 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 21? Jun 20 $24 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 20? Jun 20 $3 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 20 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 20 $18 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $56 −$3 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $20 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $51 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? Jun 19 $0 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 20? Jun 19 $14 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 20? Jun 19 $40 −$2 -5%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? Jun 19 $17 −$14 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 19 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 19 $18 −$2 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 19? Jun 19 $27 −$2 -7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 19 $81 −$6 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19? Jun 19 $26 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 19 $10 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? Jun 18 $68 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $78 −$4 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $45 −$3 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $22 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Jun 17 $18 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? Jun 17 $18 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? Jun 17 $24 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 17 $27 −$3 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? SELL No 58¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? BUY No 58¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? SELL Yes 56¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 58¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 58¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? SELL No 50¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 51¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? SELL No 59¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? SELL No 59¢ $14 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 58¢ $16 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 22? SELL Yes 34¢ $12 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 22? BUY Yes 34¢ $12 7h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 42¢ $7 10h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 42¢ $8 10h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL Yes 47¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 48¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 21? SELL Yes 51¢ $25 13h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 21? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? SELL No 55¢ $16 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? BUY No 55¢ $16 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? SELL No 56¢ $14 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? SELL No 56¢ $14 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? BUY No 56¢ $28 14h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 40¢ $7 14h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 40¢ $8 14h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 21? SELL No 53¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 21? SELL No 53¢ $10 15h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 53¢ $12 15h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 21? SELL No 49¢ $3 15h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 21? SELL No 50¢ $21 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 156 history records