Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:44:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

C7 0xc741…880a other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 202d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$3,264 (-38%) realized −$3,092 · open −$172

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip

Net edge-100%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 16L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$509per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Kalshi-fit59%portable

Net worth$5,076now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-100.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	16	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
10%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
15%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
20%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -100% → late -100% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

— vs −$204 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

202d coverage

Net worth$5,076

Realized−$3,092

Unrealized−$172

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 16

Open positions1

Markets (closed)16 / 17

History coverage202d

Avg bet$509

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	14¢	13¢	$5,249	$5,076	−$172 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Maduro out in 2025?	Dec 13	$160	−$160	-100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?	Dec 12	$1,000	−$1,000	-100%
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?	Dec 09	$514	−$514	-100%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?	Dec 08	$290	−$290	-100%
Will Sam Altman be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?	Dec 08	$100	−$100	-100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?	Dec 08	$300	−$300	-100%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31?	Dec 08	$100	−$100	-100%
Apple Vision Pro 2 released by December 31?	Dec 08	$150	−$150	-100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by December 31?	Dec 08	$50	−$50	-100%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of December 20	Dec 08	$100	−$100	-100%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?	Dec 08	$50	−$50	-100%
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2	Dec 08	$100	−$100	-100%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Dec 08	$50	−$50	-100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 9?	Dec 08	$50	−$50	-100%
GPT ads by December 31?	Dec 08	$150	−$150	-100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	Dec 08	$100	−$100	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	14¢	$5,385	1h
Maduro out in 2025?	BUY Yes	10¢	$60	195d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?	BUY No	46¢	$1,000	197d
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	30¢	$12	199d
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	30¢	$48	199d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?	BUY Yes	29¢	$70	200d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?	BUY Yes	29¢	$1	200d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?	BUY Yes	29¢	$8	200d
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	30¢	$43	200d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?	BUY Yes	29¢	$1	200d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?	BUY Yes	29¢	$10	200d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?	BUY Yes	29¢	$1	200d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?	BUY Yes	29¢	$49	200d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?	BUY Yes	29¢	$2	200d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?	BUY Yes	29¢	$102	200d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?	BUY Yes	29¢	$0	200d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?	BUY Yes	29¢	$1	200d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?	BUY Yes	29¢	$1	200d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?	BUY Yes	29¢	$4	200d
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	30¢	$2	200d
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	30¢	$0	200d
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	30¢	$19	200d
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	30¢	$99	200d
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	30¢	$59	200d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?	BUY Yes	29¢	$6	200d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?	BUY Yes	29¢	$12	200d
Will Sam Altman be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?	BUY Yes	11¢	$100	200d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?	BUY Yes	40¢	$300	200d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31?	BUY Yes	15¢	$100	200d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?	BUY Yes	29¢	$20	200d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,076.29 · official $5,076.29 (match) · 51 history records