Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:44:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C7 0xc741…1b17 crypto 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$189 (+1%) realized +$198 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%63W / 2L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$426per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$36
14 days+$98
30 days+$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$170
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.6% -9.0% 86% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 28 +0.6% -9.0% 93% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 64 +0.4% -9.2% 97% 0% -8.9%
all 65 +0.4% -9.2% 97% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -8.9%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.1% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$1,023) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×12.39 per $1 lost it wins $12.39
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$1,135
Realized+$198
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses63 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)65 / 68
History coverage91d
Avg bet$426
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? No 96¢ 96¢ $1,139 $1,130 −$9 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? No 99¢ 97¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $1,130 +$10 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $1,122 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $192 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,113 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,103 +$11 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,116 −$16 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,105 +$13 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1,096 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,082 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $1,059 +$30 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $1,049 +$11 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $1,044 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $1,040 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $1,029 +$11 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,016 +$13 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1,002 +$13 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $997 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? May 31 $5 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? May 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? May 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27? May 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 26? May 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? May 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 24? May 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15? May 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 14? May 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 8? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 4? May 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 30? May 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 27? Apr 30 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 20? Apr 27 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 19? Apr 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 15? Apr 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 13? Apr 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 12? Apr 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 10? Apr 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 97¢ $107 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 96¢ $48 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 96¢ $480 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 96¢ $506 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $1,130 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $1,122 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $192 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1,113 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,103 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $8 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $1,094 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $1,118 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $1,105 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $15 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $124 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $6 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $138 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $620 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $108 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $86 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $117 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $60 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $31 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $3 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $10 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $753 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,134.94 · official $1,134.94 (match) · 166 history records