Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:06:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc73e…2a79 weather 184 markets active 0h ago coverage 88d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 88d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,361 (-2%) realized −$1,360 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +75% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate36%66W / 118L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$455per market
Trades / day32.6pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$275now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 88d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 77% −$17,498
other 16% −$1,846
world 4% +$10
crypto 3% −$1,402
politics 0% +$2
tech 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+58.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -2.6% -11.8% 41% 12% -5.2%
≤30d 29 -11.0% -19.5% 52% 7% -28.1%
≤90d 184 +74.8% +58.1% 36% 17% -39.4%
all 184 +74.8% +58.1% 36% 17% -39.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +58.1% 17% -39.4%
10% ← realistic here +43.0% 17% -45.2%
15% +29.2% 17% -50.5%
20% +16.5% 17% -55.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +75% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$681) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +164% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$565 vs −$492 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$275
Realized−$1,360
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses66 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)184 / 184
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$455
Trades / day32.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $158 $158 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28? No 100¢ 99¢ $100 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28? No 98¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 22? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 22 Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or below on June 22? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 22? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 22? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C or below on June 25? Jun 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 25? Jun 26 $672 +$449 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? Jun 26 $200 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 $0 -36%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 25? Jun 25 $159 −$56 -36%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $24 +$1 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $538 −$538 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 24 $2,270 +$6 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 22? Jun 23 $140 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 −$9 -91%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 22 $66 +$501 +758%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $200 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 5? Jun 08 $112 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 6? Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5? Jun 08 $66 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $923 −$619 -67%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $1,222 −$783 -64%
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw Jun 01 $214 −$209 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 31? Jun 01 $200 −$100 -50%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 29? Jun 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 28? May 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 28? May 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 27? May 28 $256 $0 +0%
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw May 25 $496 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 20? May 21 $316 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? May 20 $95 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 21? May 20 $420 −$420 -100%
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 19 $604 +$17 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 18 $363 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on May 15? May 18 $318 −$18 -6%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 16 $335 −$335 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 15? May 14 $300 −$300 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on May 14? May 14 $12 −$12 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 14? May 14 $124 −$124 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 14? May 14 $198 −$198 -100%
Will Temu: Shop Like a Billionaire be #1 Free App in the US Apple App May 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 12? May 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 11? May 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C or below on May 12? May 12 $124 −$124 -100%
Will Netflix Game Controller be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 8? May 11 $203 +$417 +205%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 8? May 10 $15 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 10? May 10 $298 −$298 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 98¢ $3 14m
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 100¢ $7 1h
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 100¢ $158 1h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 99¢ $3 32h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C or below on June 25? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 25? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $18 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 25? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 25? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 25? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 25? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 25? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $17 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $15 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 25? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 25? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 25? BUY Yes 96¢ $383 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 25? BUY Yes 96¢ $96 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 25? BUY No 98¢ $91 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 25? BUY No 72¢ $82 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $118 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 25? BUY No 98¢ $128 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 25? BUY No 72¢ $93 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $3 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 25? BUY No 98¢ $5 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 25? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $7 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 25? BUY No 98¢ $16 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $275.16 · official $275.26 (match) · 3500 history records