Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:59:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc73c…c1a3 crypto 126 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$142 (-3%) realized −$80 · open −$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate56%70W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$164
7 days−$210
14 days−$236
30 days−$252
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$206
other 13% −$175
world 1% +$22
sports 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -0.5% -10.0% 56% 50% -25.2%
≤30d 19 -4.0% -13.2% 53% 47% -22.9%
≤90d 83 -9.9% -18.5% 59% 54% -14.5%
all 125 -11.4% -19.9% 56% 48% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 48% -15.0%
10% -27.5% 37% -23.1%
15% -34.5% 20% -30.6%
20% -41.0% 10% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$22 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$80
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses70 / 55
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage123d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $63 $0 −$62 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $39 +$26 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 24 $34 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 24 $36 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 24 $226 −$191 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 24 $139 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 24 $101 +$37 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $95 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 24 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$29 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$12 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 24 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 24 $133 +$57 +43%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $148 −$144 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $78 +$71 +92%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $87 −$10 -11%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $69 −$66 -95%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 +$39 +131%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 19 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 19 $72 +$18 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 19 $44 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 19 $36 +$9 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 19 $56 +$14 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 19 $52 +$18 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 19 $27 +$13 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 19 $56 +$21 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 19 $93 +$23 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 19 $28 −$13 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 19 $64 +$26 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 19 $56 +$14 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 19 $36 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 19 $28 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 19 $27 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 19 $21 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 19 $73 +$34 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 19 $62 +$19 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 19 $42 −$9 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 19 $28 −$27 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 19 $70 +$30 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 19 $36 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 19 $56 +$14 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 19 $31 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 19 $31 +$16 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 9¢ $64 50m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 65¢ $65 51m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $226 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $228 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $136 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $138 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $95 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $55 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.35 · official $0.35 (match) · 538 history records