Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:16:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C7 0xc73b…e01d other 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 285d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$409 (-30%) realized −$408 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate29%17W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$201
7 days−$208
14 days−$208
30 days−$208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$544
sports 10% −$24
world 1% −$17
economics 0% +$2
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-50.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -63.1% -66.6% 25% 25% -95.2%
≤30d 4 -63.1% -66.6% 25% 25% -95.2%
≤90d 4 -63.1% -66.6% 25% 25% -95.2%
all 58 -44.9% -50.1% 29% 19% -54.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.1% 19% -54.5%
10% -54.9% 19% -58.8%
15% -59.3% 14% -62.8%
20% -63.2% 9% -66.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -99% too few recent
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$16 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

285d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$408
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses17 / 41
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 62
History coverage285d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $114 $113 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 −$11 -86%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 +$4 +48%
Will Panathinaikos win on 2025-10-02? Oct 02 $6 −$6 -100%
49ers vs. Rams Oct 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Red Sox vs. Yankees Oct 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Padres vs. Cubs Oct 01 $5 $0 +3%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? Oct 01 $2 $0 +4%
Will Napoli win on 2025-10-01? Oct 01 $8 +$2 +25%
Will Monaco vs. Manchester City end in a draw? Oct 01 $5 $0 +4%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-01? Oct 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-01? Oct 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Qarabag win on 2025-10-01? Oct 01 $10 $0 +2%
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? Sep 30 $170 −$170 -100%
Will CA Barracas Central win on 2025-09-29? Sep 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2025-09-29? Sep 29 $3 $0 +3%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-09-26? Sep 25 $9 −$2 -24%
Will CF América win on 2025-09-24? Sep 25 $2 −$1 -52%
Will Portland Timbers win on 2025-09-24? Sep 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2025-09-24? Sep 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-24? Sep 24 $7 −$1 -17%
Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-09-24? Sep 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-25? Sep 24 $4 $0 -2%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-23? Sep 23 $7 +$2 +33%
Will Napoli win on 2025-09-22? Sep 23 $6 $0 +8%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-09-22? Sep 22 $4 +$2 +50%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-09-22? Sep 22 $109 −$91 -83%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-09-22? Sep 22 $182 −$4 -2%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-09-21? Sep 22 $92 −$3 -4%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-21? Sep 21 $89 +$25 +28%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-21? Sep 21 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-21? Sep 21 $19 +$18 +96%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-20? Sep 20 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-20? Sep 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-18? Sep 18 $9 +$15 +177%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2025-09-17? Sep 18 $4 +$5 +127%
Cowboys vs. Bears Sep 17 $8 $0 -1%
Marlins vs. Rockies Sep 17 $3 −$3 -93%
Reds vs. Cardinals Sep 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Padres vs. Mets Sep 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2025-09-16? Sep 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 12AM ET Sep 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Phillies vs. Dodgers Sep 16 $4 +$2 +51%
Rangers vs. Astros Sep 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-09-14? Sep 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-09-14? Sep 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 14 $4 +$2 +64%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 12 $3 $0 -7%
Will Elon tweet between 200 and 219 times September 5–12? Sep 12 $5 −$4 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $116 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 0¢ $1 5h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $205 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $11 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $8 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 49¢ $6 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 AND Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY 61¢ $22 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 38¢ $66 4d
Will Panathinaikos win on 2025-10-02? BUY Yes 61¢ $6 260d
49ers vs. Rams BUY Rams 80¢ $8 260d
Red Sox vs. Yankees BUY Red Sox 38¢ $5 260d
Padres vs. Cubs SELL Padres 100¢ $5 260d
Padres vs. Cubs BUY Padres 97¢ $5 261d
Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 261d
Will Napoli win on 2025-10-01? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 261d
Will Monaco vs. Manchester City end in a draw? SELL Yes 94¢ $6 261d
Will Monaco vs. Manchester City end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 261d
Will Napoli win on 2025-10-01? BUY Yes 80¢ $8 261d
Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-01? BUY Yes 85¢ $4 261d
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-01? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 261d
Will Qarabag win on 2025-10-01? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 261d
Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? BUY Yes 96¢ $2 261d
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-01? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 261d
Will Qarabag win on 2025-10-01? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 261d
Will CA Barracas Central win on 2025-09-29? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 263d
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2025-09-29? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 263d
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2025-09-29? BUY Yes 96¢ $3 263d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.53 · official $112.53 (match) · 130 history records