Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:08:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C7
0xc73b…a6c9
world · 198 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
+$45 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$37 · open +$18
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$287
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses103 / 93
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions46
Markets (closed)196 / 198
History coverage86d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day38.8
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 46 History 196 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$5
14 days−$32
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $49 $53 +$4 (+8%)
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? No 88¢ 93¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+6%)
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 86¢ 94¢ $17 $18 +$2 (+9%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 86¢ 98¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+15%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
SBF released from custody in 2026? No 89¢ 95¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+7%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? No 20¢ 94¢ $3 $13 +$10 (+371%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 33¢ 50¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+53%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 33¢ 22¢ $14 $9 −$5 (-36%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 87¢ 92¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+5%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 82¢ 99¢ $7 $9 +$1 (+21%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 69¢ 66¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? No 75¢ 97¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+29%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 59¢ 60¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
XRP Up or Down - February 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Down 96¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 89¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 88¢ 89¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 47¢ 90¢ $2 $5 +$2 (+91%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 72¢ 97¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+35%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 78¢ 90¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+14%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 90¢ 99¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+10%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No 91¢ 94¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 13¢ 23¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $0 +$1 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +92%
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 5, 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$2 +401%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +117%
XRP Up or Down - February 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +89%
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Jun 12 $0 $0 +83%
Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election? Jun 12 $0 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +104%
Solana Up or Down - February 21, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +108%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +104%
Solana Up or Down - February 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +132%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +108%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +118%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +54%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 -2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +25%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 11 $13 −$12 -92%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $29 +$17 +57%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 10 $1 +$1 +95%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $9 +$1 +12%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $12 +$2 +17%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $7 +$1 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $6 −$4 -61%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $1 $0 +8%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? Jun 05 $6 −$6 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? Jun 05 $5 −$4 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $7 −$2 -37%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $50 −$16 -33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $11 −$9 -77%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $51 +$10 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 70% −$17
other 12% −$22
sports 8% +$69
politics 7% +$15
crypto 3% +$12
economics 1% $0
tech 0% −$2
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $2 22m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 59¢ $6 23m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $0 24m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 39m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 39m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 56m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 56m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 75¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 76¢ $7 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 77¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 88¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +8.7% -1.7% 56% 51% -13.5%
≤30d 71 +42.6% +29.0% 51% 46% -15.7%
≤90d 196 +15.1% +4.1% 53% 40% -8.1%
all 196 +15.1% +4.1% 53% 40% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover38.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.1% 40% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -5.9% 28% -16.9%
15% -15.0% 21% -24.9%
20% -23.3% 19% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $286.95 · official $275.02 · 3500 history records