Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:19:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
C7 0xc73a…ec83 other 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$856 (+7%) realized +$863 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate71%30W / 12L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$1,238now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$35
14 days+$319
30 days+$711
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$40
other 23% +$474
sports 14% +$106
crypto 10% +$175
politics 6% +$41
tech 2% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -12.0% -20.4% 50% 50% -2.1%
≤30d 39 +14.6% +3.7% 72% 62% -1.1%
≤90d 42 +11.7% +1.0% 71% 60% -1.8%
all 42 +11.7% +1.0% 71% 60% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.0% 60% -1.8%
10% -8.6% 45% -11.2%
15% -17.5% 36% -19.8%
20% -25.5% 29% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late +34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$52 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.37 per $1 lost it wins $2.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$1,238
Realized+$863
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses30 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions5
Markets (closed)42 / 50
History coverage37d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 81¢ 84¢ $539 $556 +$17 (+3%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $253 $251 −$2 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $160 $159 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $160 $159 −$1 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $133 $113 −$20 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 27 $43 +$32 +74%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$31 +62%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $42 −$21 -52%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $49 −$48 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $62 −$62 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $72 +$39 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $107 +$70 +65%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $32 +$23 +70%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 19 $24 −$24 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $68 +$42 +62%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? Jun 19 $205 +$47 +23%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $27 +$28 +105%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$19 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $19 +$25 +134%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1,694 −$118 -7%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $130 +$44 +34%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $141 +$39 +27%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 +$56 +262%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $174 +$103 +60%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $27 +$28 +105%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $52 −$51 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $156 +$71 +46%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $140 +$18 +13%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $394 +$164 +42%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 11 $141 −$9 -6%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 Jun 10 $7 −$7 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 10 $147 −$146 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $67 +$9 +14%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $553 +$48 +9%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5 Jun 06 $548 +$73 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +8%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 06 $1,313 +$19 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 05 $100 +$1 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $168 +$40 +24%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $169 +$24 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 29 $202 +$34 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 29 $307 +$174 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 27 $202 +$29 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $2,133 +$139 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 72¢ $161 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 76¢ $255 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 72¢ $161 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $59 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 34¢ $77 24h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 56¢ $31 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 57¢ $3 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 57¢ $3 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 57¢ $3 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 59¢ $3 2d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 81¢ $544 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 61¢ $51 3d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $0 5d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $1 5d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $19 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $49 6d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $62 6d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $42 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $107 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $32 7d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 31¢ $24 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $72 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $68 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $27 8d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $19 10d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 10d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 34¢ $20 10d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY No 80¢ $8 11d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY No 82¢ $96 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,238.20 · official $1,238.20 (match) · 152 history records