Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:16:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C7 0xc736…69fc world 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 370d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +71% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +55% what you keep after slip
Net edge+55%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate43%12W / 16L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$2
other 21% $0
politics 14% +$2
crypto 9% $0
finance 6% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)+55.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 +1.8% -7.9% 60% 10% -8.9%
≤90d 10 +1.8% -7.9% 60% 10% -8.9%
all 28 +71.3% +55.0% 43% 11% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +55.0% 11% -8.9%
10% +40.1% 7% -17.6%
15% +26.6% 4% -25.6%
20% +14.2% 4% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +71% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +139% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×8.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.31 per $1 lost it wins $10.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

370d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses12 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage370d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $35 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 22 $38 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $31 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $9 +$1 +16%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 20 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $33 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 01 $2 +$1 +27%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 23 $20 $0 -0%
Starmer out before July? Jun 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Jun 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 20 $11 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 20 $10 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July? Jun 20 $10 $0 +2%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair? Jun 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 18 $8 +$2 +21%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 18 $11 $0 -1%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 16 $13 $0 -1%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 15 $12 $0 -0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 14 $20 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $35 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $35 2h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $1 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $1 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $0 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $5 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $34 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $1 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $10 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $25 25d
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $4 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $34 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $34 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 97¢ $5 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 98¢ $26 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 97¢ $31 27d
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $35 27d
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $38 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $11 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $9 28d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $1 29d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $33 29d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $17 29d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $17 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 96¢ $34 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 95¢ $33 29d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 351d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 351d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records