Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:41:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C7 0xc736…93f4 sports 126 markets active 0h ago coverage 621d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$38 (-0%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate57%72W / 54L
Whale WR11%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$521per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$114
7 days−$114
14 days−$114
30 days−$183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 63% −$8
sports 31% −$91
economics 2% $0
weather 2% +$1
crypto 1% −$63
other 0% +$12
world 0% −$11
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -26.0% -33.1% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 24 -15.7% -23.7% 17% 12% -10.0%
≤90d 32 -14.3% -22.4% 31% 16% -10.0%
all 126 -1.6% -11.0% 57% 18% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 18% -9.7%
10% -19.5% 18% -18.4%
15% -27.3% 15% -26.3%
20% -34.4% 14% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 11% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

621d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses72 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)11%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)126 / 126
History coverage621d
Avg bet$521
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 126 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,972 −$6 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,353 −$3 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $1,703 −$3 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $209 −$60 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $73 −$3 -5%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $4,004 −$4 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,101 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 02 $15 $0 +2%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $21 +$7 +34%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,803 −$5 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $6,255 −$13 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,472 −$3 -0%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 02 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,263 −$6 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $3,302 −$2 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $4,707 −$3 -0%
UFC Fight Night: Luis Felipe Dias vs. Yi Sak Lee (Middleweight, Prelim Jun 01 $13 −$13 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Camila Osorio Jun 01 $20 −$20 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 01 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $3,970 −$9 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $2,006 −$1 -0%
Pacers vs. Bulls May 30 $19 −$19 -100%
Sabres vs. Ducks Apr 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Avalanche vs. Capitals Apr 01 $10 +$6 +61%
Kings vs. Utah Apr 01 $20 +$12 +59%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February? Mar 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 22 $15 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? Mar 22 $30 $0 +1%
LoL: Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (BO3) - Feb 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (+1.5) Feb 26 $5 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: FORZE Reload vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro Lea Feb 26 $5 +$3 +64%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Feb 26 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 25 $5 $0 +1%
St. Brieuc: Raphael Perot vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert Feb 25 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Feb 24 $9 +$2 +27%
Rio Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ignacio Buse Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Rio Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Vilius Gaubas Feb 24 $10 +$2 +25%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Grou Feb 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Feb 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in January? Feb 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? Feb 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? Feb 17 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $1,475 4m
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $1,248 53m
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $1,646 54m
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $39 58m
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $45 1h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $9 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $73 1h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $334 1h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $1,813 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $1,353 1h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $1,703 1h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $3,755 16h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $1,100 23h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $43 23h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $40 23h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $50 24h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $78 25h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $7 25h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $9 25h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $7 25h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $10 26h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $1,101 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 460 history records