Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:42:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C7 0xc731…2083 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 214d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$128 (+1%) realized −$252 · open +$380
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate69%9W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,801per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$2,380now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$273
7 days−$273
14 days−$273
30 days−$273
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% +$21
other 42% +$418
sports 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -7.1% -15.9% 0% 0% -15.9%
≤30d 1 -7.1% -15.9% 0% 0% -15.9%
≤90d 5 +6.5% -3.7% 60% 40% -5.9%
all 13 -5.1% -14.2% 69% 23% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 23% -9.3%
10% -22.4% 0% -17.9%
15% -29.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -36.8% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$151 vs −$323 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$2,380
Realized−$252
Unrealized+$380
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses9 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage214d
Avg bet$1,801
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? No 72¢ 86¢ $2,000 $2,380 +$380 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 29 $3,852 −$273 -7%
Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 05 $2,514 +$221 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 01 $2,562 +$488 +19%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 01 $2,551 −$22 -1%
Based FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 31 $500 +$62 +12%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March? Mar 30 $160 +$13 +8%
Katana FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 10? Mar 10 $3,065 −$985 -32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 9? Mar 09 $2,666 +$398 +15%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? Mar 07 $2,500 +$87 +4%
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? Mar 05 $2,500 +$79 +3%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 24 $290 +$9 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? BUY No 72¢ $2,039 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 86¢ $2,893 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 83¢ $2,858 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 47¢ $685 14h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 64¢ $994 2d
Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $1,501 54d
Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 81¢ $1,013 54d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY No 83¢ $2,562 62d
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? BUY No 96¢ $2,051 88d
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? SELL No 60¢ $396 88d
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? BUY No 76¢ $500 88d
Based FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 89¢ $500 89d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March? SELL No 99¢ $173 91d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March? BUY No 92¢ $160 92d
Katana FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $1 101d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 10? SELL No 67¢ $2,079 110d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 10? BUY No 99¢ $3,065 110d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 9? BUY No 87¢ $2,666 112d
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? BUY Yes 97¢ $2,500 114d
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? BUY Yes 97¢ $2,500 119d
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan SELL Japan 100¢ $299 155d
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan BUY Japan 97¢ $48 155d
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan BUY Japan 97¢ $242 155d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 214d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,380.47 · official $2,380.47 (match) · 33 history records