Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:31:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc719…6abd other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$122
7 days−$162
14 days−$49
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$2
crypto 6% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-35.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -45.0% -50.2% 29% 29% -44.2%
≤30d 11 -28.7% -35.5% 36% 36% -15.3%
≤90d 11 -28.7% -35.5% 36% 36% -15.3%
all 11 -28.7% -35.5% 36% 36% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.5% 36% -15.3%
10% -41.6% 36% -23.4%
15% -47.3% 36% -30.8%
20% -52.4% 9% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$46 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage9d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $153 −$54 -35%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $68 −$68 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $46 +$21 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $47 −$47 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$3 -8%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$161 +158%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $39 −$39 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$41 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $42 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 24¢ $94 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $68 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $68 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $46 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $149 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $47 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 25¢ $38 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $41 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $263 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $39 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $141 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $100 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.66 · official $41.66 (match) · 19 history records