Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:51:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc70a…d91b other 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 367d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate36%15W / 27L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$17
world 30% $0
politics 12% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 3% −$1
crypto 1% $0
sports 1% −$8
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 10 +0.4% -9.1% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 10 +0.4% -9.1% 20% 0% -9.6%
all 42 -1.1% -10.5% 36% 10% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 10% -8.6%
10% -19.1% 7% -17.3%
15% -26.9% 7% -25.3%
20% -34.1% 2% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

367d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses15 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage367d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $34 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $35 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $37 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 +5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $38 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $24 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4? Aug 10 $7 +$6 +90%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $59 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 06 $35 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $35 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 06 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jul 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 04 $1 $0 +39%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 04 $12 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday? Jul 03 $12 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 betwee Jul 03 $25 +$10 +41%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 03 $24 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 02 $19 $0 +2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 02 $17 $0 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $20 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 01 $1 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times June 27–July 4? Jul 01 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tyrese Haliburton Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times June 20–27? Jun 23 $11 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 250–264 times June 20–27? Jun 23 $10 $0 -1%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 22 $19 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 22 $8 +$1 +12%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 20 $19 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 18 $19 $0 -0%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 18 $24 −$1 -2%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $35 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 3h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $21 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $14 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $21 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $14 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $1 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $34 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $9 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $26 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $35 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 78¢ $35 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $3 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $32 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $35 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $38 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $18 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $18 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $24 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 149 history records