Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:54:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C7 0xc70a…a8a3 crypto 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$92 (-17%) realized −$92 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%9W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$71
other 27% −$14
world 1% −$5
tech 1% −$4
politics 0% −$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-33.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -44.1% -49.4% 17% 17% -39.5%
≤30d 6 -44.1% -49.4% 17% 17% -39.5%
≤90d 15 -56.2% -60.3% 20% 20% -71.2%
all 27 -26.4% -33.4% 33% 33% -30.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.4% 33% -30.0%
10% -39.8% 30% -36.7%
15% -45.6% 22% -42.8%
20% -50.9% 22% -48.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -68% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -53% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$13 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$92
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses9 / 18
Open positions8
Markets (closed)27 / 35
History coverage107d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 20¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+81%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $8 −$7 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +139%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 $0 -1%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 14? Apr 09 $20 −$19 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 12? Apr 09 $20 −$19 -93%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 9? Apr 09 $1 +$1 +97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 9? Apr 09 $42 +$10 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 19? Mar 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Trump say "Waste" this week? (March 1) Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 19? Mar 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $100 −$99 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 18? Mar 18 $20 −$12 -62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 18? Mar 18 $29 +$58 +198%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 5? Mar 05 $70 +$22 +32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 5? Mar 05 $13 −$3 -26%
Will "Macbook" be said 10+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4 Mar 05 $5 −$4 -74%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 5? Mar 05 $20 +$22 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Mar 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 05 $1 +$1 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Mar 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Mar 05 $1 +$1 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Mar 05 $1 $0 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $71 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 4h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 34h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 35h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $9 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $9 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 71d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 71d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 71d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 9? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 71d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 71d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 14? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.09 · official $87.09 (match) · 92 history records