Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:27:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc709…2123 crypto 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$673 (-41%) realized −$671 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%10W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$89
7 days+$84
14 days+$84
30 days+$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 25% −$48
politics 21% −$294
crypto 19% −$134
sports 12% −$102
tech 11% +$138
economics 10% −$165
world 1% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-44.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +87.0% +69.2% 33% 33% +117.1%
≤30d 3 +87.0% +69.2% 33% 33% +117.1%
≤90d 10 +16.7% +5.6% 40% 40% +48.6%
all 51 -38.3% -44.2% 20% 20% -44.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.2% 20% -44.1%
10% -49.5% 20% -49.4%
15% -54.4% 20% -54.3%
20% -58.9% 20% -58.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +64% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -78% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$29 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$222
Realized−$671
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses10 / 41
Open positions6
Markets (closed)51 / 57
History coverage237d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-22%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$5 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$94 +356%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 03 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 03 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 08 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 08 $10 +$11 +108%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Palestine join the Board of Peace? Apr 07 $20 +$17 +85%
Will Russia join the Board of Peace? Apr 07 $20 +$23 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 03 $5 +$5 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the World team win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game? Feb 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Feb 15 $50 −$49 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Feb 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Feb 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 Feb 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) Feb 10 $50 +$48 +96%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? Jan 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Grok 4.20 released by January 15? Jan 22 $10 +$61 +614%
Cardano ETF in 2025? Jan 01 $50 +$106 +212%
Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Dec 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in December? Dec 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Epstein blackmail evidence released in 2025? Dec 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 04 $20 −$20 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Dec 04 $20 −$20 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on December 4? Dec 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Apple (AAPL) close at $285-$290 on the final day of trading of th Dec 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Apple (AAPL) close at $290-$295 on the final day of trading of th Dec 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? Dec 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk be the next CEO of X? Dec 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $100 −$100 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Nov 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in October? Nov 01 $20 +$25 +125%
Will Apple be the second most valuable company on October 31? Nov 01 $96 +$218 +227%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $120,000 on November 1? Oct 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump visit China by October 31? Oct 27 $50 −$50 -100%
TikTok sale announced by October 31? Oct 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during October press conference? Oct 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in October? Oct 23 $20 −$20 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Oct 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? Oct 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 7d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 45d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $10 70d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 108d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 108d
Will the World team win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $50 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $10 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $20 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $20 122d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 122d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 BUY Yes 30¢ $20 126d
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) BUY Seahawks 51¢ $50 129d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 146d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $222.30 · official $222.30 (match) · 77 history records