Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:08:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc706…48cf crypto 387 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$274 (-12%) realized −$274 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate28%110W / 277L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$240
7 days−$148
14 days−$344
30 days−$289
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$218
weather 23% −$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 243 -2.5% -11.8% 23% 23% -18.7%
≤30d 357 -10.0% -18.6% 27% 27% -23.1%
≤90d 387 -9.9% -18.5% 28% 27% -21.4%
all 387 -9.9% -18.5% 28% 27% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 27% -21.4%
10% -26.3% 24% -28.9%
15% -33.4% 24% -35.8%
20% -39.9% 23% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$5 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$274
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses110 / 277
Open positions0
Markets (closed)387 / 387
History coverage49d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 387 Trades
no open positions (188 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$13 +809%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$36 +348%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$39 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$41 +270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$32 +205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $13 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $15 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $14 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $13 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $15 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $15 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $14 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $13 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 699 history records