Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:43:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc703…562f sports 150 markets active 1h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%16W / 133L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$5
politics 22% −$3
other 15% −$2
crypto 10% −$1
economics 8% $0
world 7% $0
culture 6% −$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 149 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses16 / 133
Open positions1
Markets (closed)149 / 150
History coverage165d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 94¢ 94¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $45 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 20 $252 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 20 $51 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 20 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 20 $159 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 20 $101 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 20 $62 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 20 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 20 $150 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 20 $101 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 20 $124 −$1 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 20 $76 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 20 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 20 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 20 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 20 $219 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 20 $107 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 20 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 19 $55 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 19 $54 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 19 $47 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 19 $103 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 19 $199 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 19 $97 $0 -0%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Feb 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 19 $278 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 19 $86 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $51 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 19 $103 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 19 $132 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 17 $136 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 17 $51 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Feb 17 $24 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 17 $62 $0 -1%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 17 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 17 $179 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 17 $53 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 17 $9 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 17 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 17 $56 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $45 1h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $40 13d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $40 13d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $44 27d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $45 28d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $49 41d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $49 41d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $52 126d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $52 126d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 96¢ $51 126d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 96¢ $51 126d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $51 126d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $51 126d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 94¢ $48 126d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 94¢ $48 126d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $47 126d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $47 126d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $45 126d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $45 126d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $53 126d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $53 126d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $49 126d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $49 126d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $46 126d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $46 126d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $53 126d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $1 126d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $54 126d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 91¢ $2 126d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $45 126d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.05 · official $45.05 (match) · 582 history records