Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:45:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C7 0xc702…b3fc other 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$152 (-3%) realized −$170 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%30W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$878now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$258
14 days−$206
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$152
sports 29% +$60
crypto 7% +$7
finance 1% +$13
world 0% −$10
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -28.2% -35.0% 50% 43% -22.3%
≤30d 51 -7.6% -16.4% 55% 51% -11.5%
≤90d 57 -10.1% -18.6% 53% 49% -11.9%
all 57 -10.1% -18.6% 53% 49% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 49% -11.9%
10% -26.4% 44% -20.3%
15% -33.5% 39% -28.0%
20% -40.1% 25% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$43 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$878
Realized−$170
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses30 / 27
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions10
Markets (closed)57 / 67
History coverage54d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 76¢ $100 $142 +$42 (+42%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 80¢ $100 $120 +$20 (+20%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 86¢ $100 $119 +$19 (+19%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 88¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 66¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 64¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 46¢ $100 $72 −$28 (-28%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 40¢ $100 $69 −$31 (-31%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+9%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Yes 38¢ 37¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain to win the second half? Jun 21 $390 +$66 +17%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $168 +$73 +44%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $155 +$13 +8%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $204 −$204 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$4 -71%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $101 +$58 +57%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $35 −$34 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $23 +$11 +48%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $264 −$241 -91%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $262 +$63 +24%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $61 −$48 -78%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $175 +$4 +2%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $20 +$48 +237%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 −$6 -81%
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 14 $10 +$15 +146%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $111 +$69 +62%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $40 +$11 +26%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $15 +$15 +101%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $61 +$36 +59%
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $152 +$135 +89%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $61 −$60 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $61 +$59 +97%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $10 +$4 +44%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $30 +$13 +43%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $198 +$21 +11%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $61 −$55 -89%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $61 −$34 -56%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Taro Daniel Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$34 +165%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $5 +$2 +40%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $10 +$7 +65%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $10 +$6 +60%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $13 +$3 +20%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $61 +$26 +43%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $61 +$19 +31%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $20 +$11 +55%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $171 +$136 +79%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain to win the second half? SELL Yes 100¢ $457 1h
Spain to win the second half? BUY Yes 85¢ $390 2h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $149 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $168 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $168 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 92¢ $155 25h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $35 4d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 67¢ $23 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $23 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $264 6d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 6d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $31 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $325 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $13 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 11¢ $13 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $249 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $179 7d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL No 100¢ $69 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $175 7d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 7d
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand SELL Yes 98¢ $25 7d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 100¢ $152 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $10 7d
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand BUY Yes 39¢ $10 7d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 7d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 47¢ $29 7d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 29¢ $20 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $878.05 · official $878.05 (match) · 115 history records