Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:14:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc6ff…f8e3 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4,453 (-23%) realized −$4,453 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,610per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$5,336
crypto 5% +$683
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -13.5% -21.8% 50% 50% -31.4%
≤30d 12 -13.5% -21.8% 50% 50% -31.4%
≤90d 12 -13.5% -21.8% 50% 50% -31.4%
all 12 -13.5% -21.8% 50% 50% -31.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 50% -31.4%
10% -29.3% 25% -38.0%
15% -36.1% 25% -44.0%
20% -42.4% 17% -49.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$589 vs −$1,364 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,453
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage3d
Avg bet$1,610
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5,071 −$5,000 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,020 −$1,399 -69%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,012 +$683 +67%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,015 −$254 -25%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,004 +$146 +14%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,025 +$1,423 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2,009 +$344 +17%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,615 +$738 +46%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $512 −$500 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,028 −$1,000 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,008 −$31 -3%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $998 +$198 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 54¢ $4,055 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 49¢ $1,015 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 21¢ $621 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,012 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $2,020 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 38¢ $761 19h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $1,015 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 87¢ $1,004 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $2,025 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 85¢ $2,009 27h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,615 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $512 45h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1,028 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 71¢ $978 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $1,008 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 83¢ $998 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records