Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:00:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc6fe…20e4 politics 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 319d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate36%16W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% $0
other 18% $0
world 11% $0
sports 9% $0
crypto 8% −$1
weather 4% $0
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
all 44 -2.3% -11.6% 36% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -20.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

319d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage319d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $60 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 26 $6 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 17 $1 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 17 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 17 $9 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 17 $44 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 16 $75 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 16 $48 $0 +1%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Aug 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Aug 15 $19 $0 -1%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 15 $26 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $123K on August 12 at 5PM ET Aug 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sam Soverel win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Aug 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August? Aug 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 14 $10 $0 -1%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 14 $3 $0 -5%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Aug 14 $27 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 12 $41 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on August 10 at 5 Aug 12 $41 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 10 $44 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00–1.04ºC in July 2025? Aug 10 $48 $0 +1%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 09 $49 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Aug 08 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 06 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $33 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $33 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 80¢ $6 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $6 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $30 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $30 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $29 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $6 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $24 3d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $33 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $33 25d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $6 25d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $6 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 30¢ $7 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 30¢ $5 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 30¢ $12 26d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 307d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 90¢ $3 307d
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? SELL Yes 97¢ $7 307d
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? SELL Yes 97¢ $48 307d
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? BUY Yes 97¢ $55 307d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $28 307d
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL No 91¢ $29 307d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $28 307d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $28 307d
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY No 91¢ $29 307d
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $24 307d
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 97¢ $6 307d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $28 307d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 120 history records