Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:26:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc6fb…d13f world 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$5
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% −$4
other 14% $0
sports 6% +$7
weather 3% −$7
politics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.6% -10.0% 25% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 20 +0.6% -9.0% 30% 5% -10.0%
≤90d 20 +0.6% -9.0% 30% 5% -10.0%
all 39 -1.2% -10.6% 38% 5% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 5% -10.0%
10% -19.2% 5% -18.6%
15% -27.0% 3% -26.5%
20% -34.1% 3% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage492d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $29 $0 -1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $42 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $42 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $17 −$1 -5%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 22 $56 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $16 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $43 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $95 −$5 -5%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +26%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $43 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $47 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 08 $2 $0 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $45 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $83 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $91 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $24 +$2 +6%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -8%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Dec 11 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jun 27 $6 $0 -3%
Will valid votes be between 36 million and 38 million in South Korean Jun 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $1 $0 +4%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 06 $6 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win by 150 or more seats? May 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 22 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? Apr 18 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 17 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Apr 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on March 5? Mar 04 $14 −$4 -33%
Nets vs. Spurs Mar 03 $16 −$2 -12%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on March 4? Mar 03 $18 −$2 -13%
New Mexico vs. Nevada Mar 03 $18 $0 +0%
North Dakota State vs. South Dakota Mar 03 $8 +$8 +113%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Feb 23 $3 $0 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $29 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $29 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $42 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $42 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $42 44h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $42 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $16 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $17 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $13 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $13 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $1 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $4 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $4 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $34 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $43 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $16 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $16 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $26 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $12 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $3 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $33 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $33 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $38 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $38 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 83¢ $42 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $47 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $47 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $48 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 111 history records