Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:08:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C6 0xc6fb…e3e3 sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$2 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate68%13W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$40
sports 47% +$32
crypto 3% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +10.9% +0.4% 68% 58% -5.1%
≤30d 19 +10.9% +0.4% 68% 58% -5.1%
≤90d 19 +10.9% +0.4% 68% 58% -5.1%
all 19 +10.9% +0.4% 68% 58% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.4% 58% -5.1%
10% -9.3% 53% -14.2%
15% -18.0% 42% -22.4%
20% -26.1% 32% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses13 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage3d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 Over 77¢ 71¢ $21 $19 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $13 +$13 +99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 +$3 +30%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $51 −$32 -64%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $19 −$16 -86%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$15 +283%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 +$9 +23%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $15 +$9 +59%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $13 +$2 +18%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $7 +$5 +73%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $5 +$2 +48%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +51%
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 20 $4 $0 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $7 +$4 +62%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $20 +$7 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 BUY Over 77¢ $21 48m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 29¢ $5 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $26 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $13 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $13 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $21 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $20 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 5h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 12¢ $3 5h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $20 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 50¢ $18 5h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $19 9h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $30 9h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 97¢ $30 9h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $24 9h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $15 9h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $15 9h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $13 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $7 15h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $7 15h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 26h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 26h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 26h
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $4 27h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 67¢ $5 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.36 · official $19.36 (match) · 38 history records