Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C6 0xc6f8…7fa1 sports 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,198 (-13%) realized −$2,948 · open −$250
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%60W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$317est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,606now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$463
7 days−$3,095
14 days−$2,490
30 days−$2,780
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$3,450
world 1% −$36
other 1% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -9.1% -17.8% 44% 42% -31.7%
≤30d 108 -7.9% -16.7% 47% 44% -22.4%
≤90d 108 -7.9% -16.7% 47% 44% -22.4%
all 131 -11.5% -19.9% 46% 42% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 42% -23.1%
10% -27.6% 37% -30.4%
15% -34.6% 36% -37.2%
20% -41.0% 26% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$140 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$1,606
Realized−$2,948
Unrealized−$250
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses60 / 71
Est. fees paid−$317
Open positions11
Markets (closed)131 / 142
History coverage198d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Card) Manuel Torres 49¢ 46¢ $462 $443 −$20 (-4%)
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Card) Vinicius Oliveira 71¢ 71¢ $300 $302 +$2 (+1%)
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Kyoji Horiguchi 41¢ 40¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ 100¢ $100 $192 +$92 (+92%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner T1 Academy 61¢ 100¢ $100 $164 +$64 (+64%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 35¢ 100¢ $50 $143 +$93 (+186%)
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims) Luana Santos 50¢ 48¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Nongshim Esports Academy 38¢ 14¢ $100 $39 −$61 (-61%)
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) Ion Cutelaba 27¢ 26¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs KT Rolster Challengers 55¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 33¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 33¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $291 −$237 -81%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $152 −$100 -66%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 −$6 -12%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 15 $102 −$12 -12%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $160 −$108 -67%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $810 −$700 -86%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $51 −$2 -4%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $303 +$114 +38%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$56 +55%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$58 +57%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$53 +52%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $305 −$300 -98%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $92 −$90 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $601 −$400 -67%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $355 +$162 +46%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $304 −$300 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $304 −$300 -99%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $253 −$250 -99%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $203 +$227 +112%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $102 +$99 +97%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $404 +$168 +42%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $51 +$60 +119%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $153 −$150 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $251 +$13 +5%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $303 −$300 -99%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $203 +$185 +91%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $232 +$147 +63%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $102 +$151 +148%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $1,184 +$128 +11%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $363 +$158 +43%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $361 +$157 +43%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $152 +$76 +50%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $51 +$238 +465%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $455 −$450 -99%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $37 −$36 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $759 −$745 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $102 +$179 +176%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame Jun 11 $303 +$126 +42%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $421 −$414 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $404 +$220 +54%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $160 −$159 -100%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $204 −$200 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $302 −$300 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 35¢ $51 44m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 33¢ $102 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 61¢ $101 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 33¢ $51 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ $101 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 38¢ $102 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 55¢ $203 6h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Ion Cutelaba 27¢ $31 18h
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Luana Santos 50¢ $101 18h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 41¢ $204 18h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Manuel Torres 50¢ $102 21h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Manuel Torres 48¢ $368 24h
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Vinicius Oliveira 71¢ $303 25h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 55¢ $37 46h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 56¢ $101 46h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 55¢ $101 46h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Kevin Borjas 17¢ $45 46h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims SELL Mitch Raposo 34¢ $90 46h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Kyoji Horiguchi 40¢ $105 46h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 57¢ $8 47h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 63¢ $404 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 57¢ $101 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 57¢ $101 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 65¢ $303 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Galions 42¢ $49 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner SELL Galions 42¢ $49 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner SELL Galions 42¢ $49 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 4 Winner SELL Galions 44¢ $49 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs SELL Galions 35¢ $102 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 4 Winner BUY Galions 44¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,606.13 · official $1,597.49 (match) · 299 history records