Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:24:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C6 0xc6f8…94ce crypto 936 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$80 (-2%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%492W / 444L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day40.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$34
14 days−$116
30 days−$248
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$247
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 387 +2.7% -7.1% 66% 66% -11.7%
≤30d 935 -11.1% -19.5% 53% 51% -16.1%
≤90d 936 -11.0% -19.5% 53% 51% -16.1%
all 936 -11.0% -19.5% 53% 51% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.5% 51% -16.1%
10% ← realistic here -27.2% 49% -24.1%
15% -34.2% 35% -31.4%
20% -40.7% 12% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses492 / 444
Open positions0
Markets (closed)936 / 936
History coverage42d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day40.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 936 Trades
no open positions (363 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +112%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +234%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $2 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $2 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $8 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $3 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $4 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $0 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2055 history records