Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:24:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C6 0xc6f7…373c other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate80%32W / 8L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$519now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$4
14 days+$6
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$22
weather 3% +$3
sports 2% +$13
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 10 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 22 -12.0% -20.4% 86% 0% -9.8%
all 40 -17.0% -24.9% 80% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 5% -9.6%
10% -32.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -38.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -44.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -21% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$519
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses32 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage108d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $519 $519 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $518 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $489 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $518 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $520 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $518 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $518 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $508 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $510 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $509 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $508 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 16 $199 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 16 $298 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 06 $51 −$41 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 08 $40 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 04 $39 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 24? Mar 25 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 23? Mar 24 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on March 24? Mar 24 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 23? Mar 24 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or higher on March 22 Mar 23 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on March 22? Mar 23 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 22? Mar 22 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 21? Mar 21 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 20? Mar 21 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on March 18? Mar 19 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on March 18? Mar 18 $10 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on March 15 Mar 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on March 14 Mar 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 14? Mar 15 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 14? Mar 14 $10 $0 -4%
Dota 2: AVULUS vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - CCT Group A Mar 13 $35 +$3 +10%
LoL: Berlin International Gaming vs The Otter Side (BO3) - EMEA Master Mar 12 $38 +$2 +5%
Newcastle United FC vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5 Mar 11 $20 +$3 +15%
LoL: Solary vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Champions Round Mar 10 $25 +$2 +6%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Mar 09 $20 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 64°F or higher on March 7? Mar 08 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on March 5? Mar 06 $24 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $520 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $518 3d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $489 7d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 8d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $518 11d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes $0 13d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $519 15d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes $0 16d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 18d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $463 18d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 18d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $518 22d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 25d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $372 25d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $79 25d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes $0 28d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes $0 28d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes $0 28d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes $0 28d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes $0 28d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes $0 28d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes $0 28d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes $0 28d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes $0 28d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes $0 28d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes $0 28d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes $0 28d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes $0 28d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes $0 28d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes $0 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $519.22 · official $519.22 (match) · 125 history records