Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:04:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C6 0xc6eb…65a7 sports 45 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$41 (+3%) realized +$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%24W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$122
7 days+$59
14 days+$77
30 days+$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$55
sports 46% +$128
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +2.0% -7.7% 50% 47% -5.3%
≤30d 44 +1.6% -8.1% 55% 50% -4.5%
≤90d 44 +1.6% -8.1% 55% 50% -4.5%
all 44 +1.6% -8.1% 55% 50% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 50% -4.5%
10% -16.9% 45% -13.6%
15% -24.9% 39% -22.0%
20% -32.3% 20% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$22 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses24 / 20
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage17d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $128 +$43 +33%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $19 +$86 +444%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $77 −$76 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$6 -78%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Jun 17 $4 +$1 +40%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 17 $94 −$94 -99%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 17 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $134 +$119 +88%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $77 +$23 +29%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 16 $8 +$2 +18%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 16 $40 +$3 +7%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 16 $73 $0 -0%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$16 +80%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $100 +$19 +19%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +41%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $50 +$57 +114%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $28 −$27 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$24 -78%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $25 +$59 +231%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $60 −$46 -76%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $89 −$88 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $29 +$11 +38%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 12 $60 +$19 +31%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 12 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $23 +$39 +172%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 09 $18 +$7 +37%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Kia Tigers Jun 07 $3 +$2 +65%
KBO: LG Twins vs. NC Dinos Jun 07 $4 +$1 +36%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. SSG Landers Jun 07 $3 +$2 +93%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. SSG Landers Jun 06 $9 +$4 +46%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Kia Tigers Jun 05 $3 −$3 -99%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Kia Tigers Jun 05 $9 +$3 +38%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Doosan Bears Jun 04 $9 −$1 -11%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. SSG Landers Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kia Tigers Jun 04 $7 +$4 +58%
Will Min Hyung-bae win the 2026 Jeonnam–Gwangju mayoral election? Jun 04 $5 $0 +0%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. SSG Landers Jun 02 $3 −$3 -99%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kia Tigers Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kia Tigers Jun 02 $5 +$3 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 17m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 81¢ $8 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $8 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $8 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $28 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $8 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $18 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 5h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY Lotte Giants 71¢ $4 10h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 10h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 78¢ $94 11h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY LG Twins 29¢ $8 12h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY LG Twins 29¢ $2 12h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY LG Twins 29¢ $1 12h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY LG Twins 45¢ $5 12h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY LG Twins 45¢ $4 13h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY LG Twins 46¢ $5 13h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY LG Twins 49¢ $10 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $77 15h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 15h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 15h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $52 17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 17h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 17h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 17h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $8 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.88 · official $9.88 (match) · 136 history records