Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:19:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C6 0xc6e6…7a37 world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 450d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate63%19W / 11L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% +$4
other 23% $0
politics 4% +$2
tech 2% $0
sports 1% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.8% -8.8% 50% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 15 +0.3% -9.2% 60% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 16 +0.4% -9.2% 62% 0% -8.8%
all 30 +0.6% -9.0% 63% 3% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 3% -8.8%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.5%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.9% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.75 per $1 lost it wins $4.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

450d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses19 / 11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage450d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 43¢ 44¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 72¢ 72¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $24 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $68 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $4 $0 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 26 $13 +$1 +5%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $11 $0 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $33 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 22 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $34 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 20 $67 +$1 +2%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 18 $33 $0 +1%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Dec 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 01 $7 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 27 $5 $0 +4%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +4%
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? May 28 $9 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? May 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $11 +$2 +14%
Will the Jets draft a QB in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 20 $7 −$1 -14%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days? Mar 25 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $40 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $25 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $11 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $36 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $36 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $36 15h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 33¢ $25 20h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $14 22h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $10 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $1 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $2 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $1 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $1 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $2 30h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $35 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $14 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $13 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $38 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $38 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $11 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $11 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 90¢ $38 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 90¢ $38 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $21 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $13 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.23 · official $40.02 (match) · 90 history records