Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:49:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc6e4…aa1c crypto 1035 markets active 1d ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$240 (-3%) realized −$240 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate71%733W / 302L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day22.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$4
14 days+$5
30 days−$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$360
other 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -7.3% -16.1% 58% 58% -0.5%
≤30d 266 -9.9% -18.5% 57% 37% -26.0%
≤90d 1035 -3.3% -12.5% 71% 52% -13.3%
all 1035 -3.3% -12.5% 71% 52% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 52% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 35% -21.6%
15% -28.6% 20% -29.2%
20% -35.6% 11% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$240
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses733 / 302
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1035 / 1035
History coverage64d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day22.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1035 Trades
no open positions (215 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$8 +253%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$1 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $6 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $11 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2178 history records