Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:55:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C6
0xc6e4…16ce
other · 82 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$389 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$404 · open +$12
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$339
Realized−$404
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses4 / 66
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions12
Markets (closed)70 / 82
History coverage538d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%
Chart Positions 12 History 70 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$22
14 days−$22
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $76 $109 +$33 (+44%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $74 $68 −$6 (-8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $59 $58 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $44 $39 −$5 (-10%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $38 $32 −$6 (-16%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $14 +$2 (+23%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on December 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on December 31? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Epstein client list released in 2025? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee in 2025? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Gaza mass population relocation in 2025? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Lighter Airdrop on December 31? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Trove FDV above $60M one day after launch? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on January 1? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2,500 on January 2? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 09 $12 −$12 -97%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $165 −$3 -2%
Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $9 −$9 -96%
Will Trump say "Autopen" or "Auto Pen" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $19 −$18 -97%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $2 −$2 -68%
Trump out as President by June 30? May 14 $25 −$13 -54%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $3 $0 +2%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $3 $0 +4%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 25 $10 −$8 -83%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 06 $3,000 −$150 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -95%
Trove FDV above $60M one day after launch? Jan 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Trove FDV above $40M one day after launch? Jan 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch? Jan 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 January 12-18? Jan 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 31, 2026? Jan 16 $25 −$17 -68%
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 9, 2026? Jan 04 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on January 1? Dec 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on December 3 Dec 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on December 3 Dec 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Solana be less than $80 on January 1? Dec 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on January 1? Dec 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on December 31? Dec 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on December 31? Dec 30 $2 −$2 -100%
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee in 2025? Dec 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? Dec 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? Dec 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Dwayne Johnson win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Dec 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paul Mescal win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Dec 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Dec 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Gaza mass population relocation in 2025? Dec 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? Dec 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025? Dec 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? Dec 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? Dec 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Dec 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Dec 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Dec 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 70% −$150
other 25% −$53
politics 3% −$105
crypto 1% −$37
economics 1% −$17
tech 0% −$18
world 0% −$10
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 1h
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 4d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 4d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 15d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 15d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $13 17d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 17d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 17d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $35 17d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $20 21d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 21d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $19 30d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 30d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 30d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $25 30d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $14 30d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 30d
Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 30d
Will Trump say "Autopen" or "Auto Pen" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 30d
Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 30d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $22 30d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $23 30d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $26 30d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $30 30d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $32 30d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-68.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -67.3% -70.4% 0% 0% -21.7%
≤90d 19 -74.0% -76.5% 11% 0% -16.7%
all 70 -65.4% -68.7% 6% 3% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -68.7% 3% -19.8%
10% -71.7% 3% -27.4%
15% -74.4% 3% -34.4%
20% -76.9% 3% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $338.82 · official $338.82 (match) · 198 history records