Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:50:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C6 0xc6e2…de7f other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$38 (-3%) realized −$41 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$803now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$2
sports 23% −$2
tech 20% +$9
world 8% −$15
crypto 3% −$40
weather 1% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -3.2% -12.4% 50% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 6 -12.7% -21.0% 50% 17% -17.9%
≤90d 6 -12.7% -21.0% 50% 17% -17.9%
all 6 -12.7% -21.0% 50% 17% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 17% -17.9%
10% -28.6% 17% -25.8%
15% -35.5% 17% -32.9%
20% -41.8% 0% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$21 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$803
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage65d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 53¢ 54¢ $500 $505 +$5 (+1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Over 70¢ 69¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $62 −$7 -11%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $160 +$8 +5%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 31 $41 −$40 -97%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 31 $92 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 29 $106 −$15 -14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 15? May 28 $19 +$8 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $802.53 · official $793.14 · 17 history records