Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:29:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc6e1…fa2a other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 718d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$161 (+1%) realized +$202 · open −$41
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%20W / 20L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$254per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$895
7 days−$895
14 days−$895
30 days−$895
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$195
tech 18% −$115
world 16% −$95
politics 9% −$110
economics 5% +$34
culture 2% +$721
crypto 2% −$77
sports 1% −$72
finance 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -86.1% -87.4% 7% 7% -33.3%
≤30d 15 -86.1% -87.4% 7% 7% -33.3%
≤90d 17 -74.8% -77.2% 18% 12% -20.6%
all 40 -8.2% -16.9% 50% 40% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 40% -8.5%
10% -24.9% 22% -17.3%
15% -32.1% 15% -25.3%
20% -38.8% 15% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +36% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$95 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

718d coverage
Net worth$174
Realized+$202
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses20 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage718d
Avg bet$254
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 35¢ 34¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch? Yes 32¢ 27¢ $64 $54 −$10 (-16%)
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? Yes 17¢ $51 $23 −$28 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roku (ROKU) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during December press conference Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Solana reach $200 in November? Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Will one person dissent the December Fed decision? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Trump say "Civil war" during Elon interview? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $105,000 in November? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Not Like Us by Kendrick Lamar be the #1 searched song on Google t Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Squid Game be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year? Jun 17 $204 −$204 -100%
US government shutdown by October 1? Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will someone else win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Jun 17 $191 −$191 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,179 +$135 +11%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,236 −$39 -3%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 28 $1,140 +$94 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 24 $1,034 +$115 +11%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 12 $156 +$44 +28%
North Korea missile launch by November 30? Dec 11 $52 +$48 +92%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 30 $47 +$48 +103%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 28 $120 +$681 +569%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Nov 27 $172 +$28 +16%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Nov 24 $643 −$500 -78%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Nov 07 $500 +$85 +17%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 06 $49 +$1 +2%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7? Nov 05 $311 +$71 +23%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? Nov 05 $22 −$19 -86%
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026? Nov 01 $101 +$29 +28%
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 27 $995 +$119 +12%
Will Opensea launch a token by December 31? Sep 15 $250 +$37 +15%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 04 $350 +$6 +2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $365 +$260 +71%
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September? Oct 15 $276 +$53 +19%
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November? Oct 01 $300 −$261 -87%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? Sep 18 $23 +$45 +194%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting? Sep 04 $25 −$2 -7%
Will Trump say "Censor" or "Censorship" during Elon interview? Aug 13 $65 −$41 -63%
Fed emergency rate cut in 2024? Aug 05 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jul 04 $100 −$55 -56%
Biden drops out of presidential race? Jul 03 $100 +$124 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 35¢ $103 58m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 97¢ $1,314 9h
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $22 11h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $1,179 11h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1,197 15h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,236 13d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $1,234 50d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,140 51d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 97¢ $1,149 53d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 87¢ $1,034 72d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 78¢ $156 195d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL No 95¢ $95 198d
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL Yes 80¢ $801 200d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? SELL Yes 11¢ $143 204d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? BUY Yes 34¢ $34 210d
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY Yes $0 213d
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY Yes $0 213d
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY Yes $0 213d
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY Yes $0 213d
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY Yes $3 213d
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY Yes $1 213d
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY Yes $0 213d
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY Yes $1 213d
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY Yes $0 213d
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY Yes $0 213d
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY Yes $2 213d
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY Yes $2 213d
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY Yes $0 213d
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY Yes $1 213d
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY Yes $0 213d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.79 · official $173.74 (match) · 162 history records