Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:19:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C6 0xc6de…e190 world 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 444d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate64%23W / 13L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$3
other 20% +$1
politics 13% $0
crypto 8% +$1
sports 3% $0
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -1.9% -11.2% 64% 9% -8.8%
≤30d 13 -1.5% -10.9% 62% 8% -8.9%
≤90d 13 -1.5% -10.9% 62% 8% -8.9%
all 36 +1.3% -8.4% 64% 6% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 6% -8.9%
10% -17.1% 3% -17.6%
15% -25.1% 3% -25.5%
20% -32.5% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.25 per $1 lost it wins $3.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

444d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses23 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage444d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -26%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -18%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $26 +$1 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $3 $0 -6%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $99 +$1 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $77 +$2 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $48 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $44 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $37 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Dec 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? May 19 $2 $0 +8%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 11 $24 $0 -1%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease? Apr 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? Apr 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Apr 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 170-179 times April 4 - 11? Apr 09 $15 $0 +2%
Will egg prices be more than $6.00 in March? Apr 09 $8 $0 +2%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2025? Apr 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? Apr 07 $26 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 05 $4 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Apr 04 $3 +$1 +40%
Ethereum above $2,000 on April 4? Apr 04 $19 $0 +1%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $2 $0 +7%
Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Apr 03 $21 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $24 $0 +2%
Will the U.S. recognize Syrian government by March 31? Mar 30 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 6m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 9m
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 27h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 44h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 44h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 44h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 44h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $4 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $23 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $26 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $29 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $6 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $13 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $25 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $21 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $53 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $53 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 121 history records