Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:48:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc6da…bcd3 crypto 989 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$92 (-4%) realized −$92 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%525W / 463L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day48.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$66
14 days−$76
30 days−$133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$133
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 322 -1.5% -10.9% 48% 46% -15.1%
≤30d 988 -3.0% -12.2% 53% 52% -13.9%
≤90d 988 -3.0% -12.2% 53% 52% -13.9%
all 988 -3.0% -12.2% 53% 52% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 52% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 50% -22.1%
15% -28.3% 45% -29.6%
20% -35.3% 37% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$92
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses525 / 463
Open positions1
Markets (closed)988 / 989
History coverage27d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day48.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 988 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Down 83¢ 70¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 394 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$4 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +103%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.69 · official $2.77 (match) · 1752 history records