Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:50:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C6 0xc6d9…ecf3 crypto 88 markets active 7h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,960 (-18%) realized −$2,974 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate57%44W / 33L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day25.7pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$3,553now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$494
7 days−$477
14 days−$2,078
30 days−$2,078
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$1,598
other 26% −$2
sports 9% −$1,480
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-31.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -34.3% -40.6% 33% 33% -93.9%
≤30d 12 -51.7% -56.3% 25% 17% -45.8%
≤90d 77 -23.8% -31.1% 57% 30% -32.8%
all 77 -23.8% -31.1% 57% 30% -32.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.1% 30% -32.8%
10% ← realistic here -37.7% 16% -39.2%
15% -43.7% 12% -45.1%
20% -49.2% 5% -50.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$119 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$3,553
Realized−$2,974
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses44 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions9
Markets (closed)77 / 88
History coverage33d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day25.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $820 $946 +$126 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $820 $679 −$141 (-17%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $458 $591 +$133 (+29%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $577 $529 −$48 (-8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $425 $336 −$89 (-21%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $197 $215 +$18 (+9%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $110 $115 +$5 (+5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $80 $89 +$9 (+11%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $52 $53 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $487 −$487 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $18 +$17 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 06 $300 −$200 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 06 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 06 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 06 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 06 $200 −$70 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 06 $1,000 +$44 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 06 $1,000 −$400 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 06 $1,000 +$200 +20%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,010 −$1,010 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 15 $205 −$205 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 15 $658 −$658 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 15 $270 +$27 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 15 $47 +$52 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 15 $199 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 15 $199 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 15 $199 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 15 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 15 $199 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 15 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 15 $199 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 15 $201 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 15 $199 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 15 $199 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 15 $100 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 15 $100 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 15 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 15 $51 +$29 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 15 $72 +$28 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 15 $109 +$91 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 15 $72 +$28 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 69¢ $6 6h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 72¢ $303 22h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $308 22h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 58¢ $35 2d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $18 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $60 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $8 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $6 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $12 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $12 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $12 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $60 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $8 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $12 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $27 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $34 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $4 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $6 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $9 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,553.08 · official $3,853.08 · 947 history records