Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:35:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc6d8…c0e6 sports 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$922 (+22%) realized +$893 · open +$29
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%22W / 42L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$546now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$543
30 days+$420
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$514
sports 31% +$758
crypto 12% −$153
politics 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 36 +15.7% +4.6% 39% 39% +15.0%
≤90d 64 -10.0% -18.5% 34% 34% +21.2%
all 64 -10.0% -18.5% 34% 34% +21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 34% +21.2%
10% -26.3% 34% +9.6%
15% -33.5% 33% -1.0%
20% -40.0% 30% -10.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +34% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$31 · ×3.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$546
Realized+$893
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses22 / 42
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions4
Markets (closed)64 / 73
History coverage43d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $150 $208 +$58 (+39%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $150 $121 −$29 (-19%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $119 $118 −$1 (-1%)
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Yes 63¢ 64¢ $98 $99 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 18 $26 −$15 -56%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $152 −$150 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$226 +222%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $8 +$3 +40%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$45 +442%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $102 +$421 +411%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$88 +172%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$28 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$127 +250%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $26 −$26 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $25 +$29 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $61 +$121 +197%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $51 +$127 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 04 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 04 $21 −$20 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $51 +$84 +165%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $30 +$49 +166%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? Jun 01 $10 +$14 +134%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $255 −$250 -98%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $51 −$50 -97%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5 May 27 $30 +$21 +68%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 May 26 $25 −$25 -99%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5 May 26 $25 −$25 -99%
Another confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31? May 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 23 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 23 $25 −$24 -96%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $20 +$15 +73%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Tricked (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo May 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 18 $25 +$8 +32%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $99 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $120 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY $0 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY 24¢ $12 8d
Ebola case in the US by June 30? SELL Yes $12 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06- BUY $41 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $152 8d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score AND Will Mexico win on BUY 22¢ $163 8d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score AND Will United State BUY 27¢ $204 8d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $8 8d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 30¢ $102 8d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 11d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 11d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $2 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $51 13d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 13d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 13d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 13d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 13d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 13d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 13d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 13d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 13d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 15d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $10 15d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $546.14 · official $546.14 (match) · 178 history records