Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:09:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C6 0xc6d6…0a88 sports 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$536 (+10%) realized +$523 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate52%51W / 47L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$308now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$67
7 days+$258
14 days+$557
30 days+$557
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% +$519
other 32% +$462
world 25% −$225
politics 2% −$76
finance 1% −$70
tech 0% +$1
crypto 0% +$4
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +6.3% -3.9% 52% 52% +0.2%
≤30d 27 +16.7% +5.6% 56% 56% +9.7%
≤90d 37 +14.0% +3.1% 49% 49% +4.5%
all 98 +4.7% -5.2% 52% 46% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 46% +0.9%
10% -14.3% 43% -8.7%
15% -22.6% 38% -17.5%
20% -30.2% 33% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$40 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$308
Realized+$523
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses51 / 47
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions4
Markets (closed)98 / 102
History coverage162d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 52¢ 91¢ $60 $105 +$45 (+75%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Over 39¢ 9¢ $35 $8 −$27 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $121 +$79 +65%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $3 −$2 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 −$48 -95%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $66 −$65 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $152 +$142 +93%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $142 −$140 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 +$68 +134%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $132 +$133 +101%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $142 −$140 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 +$148 +146%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $122 +$123 +101%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $132 −$130 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $142 −$140 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $132 +$105 +79%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 +$221 +216%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $122 −$120 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $58 +$66 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 +$255 +250%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 12 $13 −$13 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 12 $40 −$27 -67%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $10 +$30 +300%
Will New York City FC vs. Inter Miami CF end in a draw? Mar 22 $39 −$29 -74%
Will Olympique de Marseille vs. Lille OSC end in a draw? Mar 22 $23 −$14 -60%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Mar 22 $23 −$20 -87%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $50 −$42 -84%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $10 +$14 +138%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5) Mar 22 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $48 +$98 +203%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Mar 21 $78 −$70 -89%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20? Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-19? Mar 19 $241 +$181 +75%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Mar 19 $50 +$50 +100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $100 +$41 +41%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $50 +$97 +194%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Mar 17 $26 −$24 -95%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Mar 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10? Mar 11 $10 +$7 +70%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 08 $75 +$107 +142%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 39¢ $36 42m
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $61 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $121 5h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $101 12h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 18¢ $3 26h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 2¢ $2 26h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $66 26h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $51 28h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $152 31h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $142 35h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $51 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $51 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $132 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $142 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $102 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $132 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $122 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $142 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 5d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $51 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $132 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 31¢ $102 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $102 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $122 6d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $58 7d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $307.97 · official $307.97 (match) · 194 history records