Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:04:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc6d6…71e6 other 135 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$61 (-0%) realized −$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate3%4W / 129L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$309per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$38
politics 36% −$20
sports 8% −$6
economics 3% −$1
crypto 2% $0
world 1% −$1
tech 1% −$1
finance 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 97 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 133 -3.4% -12.6% 3% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 2% -9.7%
10% -21.0% 2% -18.3%
15% -28.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×6.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses4 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)133 / 135
History coverage136d
Avg bet$309
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $342 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $48 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $41 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $303 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $35 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $512 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $213 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $234 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $290 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $212 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 23 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 22 $233 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $219 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $259 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $294 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $210 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $203 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $251 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $772 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $926 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $263 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $695 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $252 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $775 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $294 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $268 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $264 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $273 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $228 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $292 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $282 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $291 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $278 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $281 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 04 $213 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $93 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $232 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $225 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $985 −$1 -0%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $216 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $447 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $221 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $274 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $284 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $41 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 30h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 39h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $48 2d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 9d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $41 9d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $41 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 24d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 24d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 24d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 24d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $206 25d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $206 27d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $260 27d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $260 28d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $213 29d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $213 29d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $234 29d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $234 30d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $243 30d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $243 31d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $255 31d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $255 31d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $290 31d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $290 31d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $212 31d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $212 31d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $260 31d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $260 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.88 · official $77.88 (match) · 408 history records