Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:42:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C6 0xc6d2…78bc sports 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$217 (-5%) realized −$217 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate61%28W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$111
7 days−$184
14 days−$184
30 days−$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$226
sports 34% −$72
tech 4% +$5
world 4% +$21
crypto 2% +$1
weather 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +3.9% -6.0% 60% 40% -13.7%
≤30d 41 +1.0% -8.6% 63% 32% -13.0%
≤90d 41 +1.0% -8.6% 63% 32% -13.0%
all 46 -2.6% -11.8% 61% 30% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 30% -14.7%
10% -20.3% 20% -22.9%
15% -28.0% 9% -30.3%
20% -35.0% 7% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$45 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$217
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses28 / 18
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage143d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $75 +$19 +26%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $60 +$14 +23%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $83 −$22 -27%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $94 −$11 -12%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $93 +$1 +1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $85 −$48 -56%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $102 −$18 -17%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $30 +$18 +59%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 −$5 -14%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $113 −$59 -52%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $87 +$25 +29%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $86 +$1 +1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $65 +$22 +33%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $67 +$27 +40%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $30 +$5 +15%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $42 −$10 -24%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $39 +$3 +7%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $193 −$154 -80%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $553 −$360 -65%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $503 +$50 +10%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $291 +$212 +73%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $256 +$36 +14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $449 +$56 +13%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $204 −$5 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $182 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$7 +135%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$2 +29%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 10 $8 $0 -4%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $184 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 01 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET May 31 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET May 31 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET May 31 $10 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $163 +$21 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 31 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 31 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 31 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 31 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 30 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 30 $10 $0 +1%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Heat vs. Jazz Jan 25 $83 −$20 -24%
Lakers vs. Mavericks: O/U 233.5 Jan 25 $49 +$3 +5%
Lakers vs. Mavericks Jan 25 $42 +$7 +18%
Celtics vs. Bulls: O/U 230.5 Jan 25 $100 −$58 -58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $94 19m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $75 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $60 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 SELL Over 32¢ $61 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 42¢ $83 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 63¢ $83 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $94 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 48¢ $94 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $93 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $49 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 SELL Under 96¢ $47 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 SELL Under 96¢ $1 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 96¢ $48 34h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $48 34h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $30 35h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 57¢ $30 35h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $35 35h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 63¢ $36 35h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $36 35h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 SELL Over 23¢ $36 35h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 33¢ $54 36h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 27¢ $54 36h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $62 36h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $51 36h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $87 2d
Sweden leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $87 2d
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY Yes 99¢ $86 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $87 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 70¢ $65 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $35 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 120 history records